Europe-chasing Mainz 05 seek to extend their seven-match unbeaten Bundesliga run at Mewa Arena when they host St Pauli in Saturday's gameweek 23 contest.
After being held by Augsburg in their last home fixture, the 05ers returned to winning ways at relegation-threatened Heidenheim and aim to defeat an opponent on a three-match winless run, looking to secure a fourth consecutive top-flight victory against Kiezkicker.
Match preview
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After three consecutive losses on their travels, Mainz claimed a 2-0 success at Heidenheim to hold on to sixth place in the standings.
Having secured a first victory in four away from home, Bo Henriksen's men will welcome a return to Mewa Arena, where they have not been beaten since losing 2-0 to RB Leipzig in October.
Following that reverse, the Carnival Club have accrued maximum points in five of the seven matches they have played on their turf, strikingly keeping clean sheets in four of five heading into Saturday, even if the sixth-placed side claimed a 2-1 win over Bayern Munich the only time they have not kept a shutout.
Since letting the Bavarians in, Henriksen's team have gone three matches without conceding in front of their supporters, notching 2-0 victories over VfL Bochum and Stuttgart before Augsburg held them to a goalless encounter on February 8.
Aiming to pick up maximum points for the sixth time as hosts on Saturday, Mainz could end the weekend in the top four if they win and fourth-placed Leipzig and Freiburg in fifth — they trail by two points and one, respectively — drop points.
While rising into the guaranteed Champions League spots at the round's conclusion is uncertain, the home support will back their side to at least edge this weekend's visitors for the fourth straight time in the top flight.
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That outcome is anticipated considering promoted St Pauli's goalscoring issues, as highlighted by firing blanks in consecutive losses to Leipzig (2-0) and Freiburg (1-0), meaning Alexander Blessin's team have now failed to hit the back of the net in 12 Bundesliga fixtures this term.
Despite entering the forthcoming round with the division's third-best defensive record — only Bayern (19) and Mainz (24) have let in fewer than the 14th-placed team's 25 — Kiezkicker's dearth of attacking firepower has seen them score the fewest (18) in 22 rounds.
Regardless of those goalscoring struggles, four of St Pauli's six wins this season have been on their travels, with those triumphs seeing them keep clean sheets at Freiburg (3-0), Hoffenheim (2-0), Stuttgart (1-0) and relegation-threatened Heidenheim (2-0).
However, a three-match winless league run in which they have suffered consecutive losses heading into this weekend does not bode well, although the travelling contingent have not suffered three straight top-flight defeats on the last four occasions they have gone into a gameweek on a two-match losing streak, holding Leipzig to a 0-0 draw in September, doing likewise to Wolfsburg in October and notching wins over Holstein Kiel (3-1) in November, Stuttgart (1-0) in December and Heidenheim (2-0) last month.
It will be fascinating to see if the latter pattern continues at Mainz, as the side in 14th aim to snap their losing run against the 05ers.
Team News
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Stefan Bell is Mainz's only reported injury absentee, further encouraging a home side looking to extend their seven-match sequence without losing.
After last week's game-opening strike in the win over Heidenheim, 13-goal man Jonathan Burkardt has netted six game-clinching strikes this season, outdoing all but Harry Kane, who has scored seven match-winning goals.
Unlike Mainz, St Pauli have several players absent this weekend, with Soren Ahlers (knee), Sascha Burchert (groin), Morgan Guilavogui (wrist), Karol Mets (knee), Manolis Saliakas (thigh), James Sands (ankle), Robert Wagner (thigh) and Simon Zoller (calf) expected to miss the 23rd round.
Without five-goal man Guilavogui, the away side will rely on Johannes Eggestein to be decisive this weekend, hoping he replicates match-winning performances at Stuttgart and Heidenheim.
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Da Costa, Jenz, Kohr; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel; Weiper, Burkardt
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Wahl, Smith, Nemeth; Treu, Irvine, Boukhalfa, Van der Heyden; Saad, Eggestein, Weisshaupt
We say: Mainz 05 1-0 St Pauli
Given both sides' defensive records, Saturday's encounter could be low-scoring, as the side with the second-lowest goals conceded as hosts (10) seek a sixth league triumph at Mewa Arena against an opponent with the third-best defensive record away from home (13 conceded).
Nevertheless, the 05ers are backed to edge the encounter and inflict a third straight league defeat on this weekend's opponents and eighth on their travels
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