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Cagliari logo
Serie A | Gameweek 18
Jan 18, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Sant'Elia
Milan logo

Cagliari
0 - 2
AC Milan


Godin (83'), Ceppitelli (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ibrahimovic (7' pen., 52')
Romagnoli (39'), Saelemaekers (68')
Saelemaekers (74')

Preview: Cagliari vs. AC Milan - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Monday's Serie A clash between Cagliari and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Still at the Serie A summit, AC Milan took one step closer to a possible double with cup success in midweek, ahead of their trip to struggling Cagliari on Monday.

The Sardinian side sit just two points above the relegation zone and on a winless streak of 10 games - including five consecutive defeats across all competitions.


Match preview

AC Milan's Franck Kessie celebrates scoring their second goal on January 9, 2021© Reuters

Milan immediately bounced back from a dispiriting defeat to Scudetto challengers Juventus last week, with consecutive home wins over Torino in league and cup.

The two teams first met on Saturday evening at San Siro, with Milan putting their first Serie A defeat of the season behind them courtesy of a 2-0 victory - decided by strikes from the versatile Rafael Leao and midfield lynchpin Franck Kessie, who reliably scored from the spot.

A relatively regulation win for the injury-hit Rossoneri was significantly marked by the return of their towering talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic in the closing minutes.

Just days later, Ibrahimovic made his first start in nearly two months, as Milan needed a penalty shoot-out to finally get the better of the same opposition and book their place in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals - securing a mouthwatering tie against city rivals Inter.

At the Sardegna Arena on Monday evening, 'King Zlatan' should be ready to reclaim his Serie A throne, as he looks to pick up from where he left off - having hit the net ten times in just seven matches.

Furthermore, Hakan Calhanoglu, who has just one league goal so far but has laid on six assists and created countless other opportunities, is also expected back in the starting XI after a recent ankle problem.

The pair - who are so integral to the club's hopes of finally ending Juve's domestic hegemony this season - could help Stefano Pioli's side to equal a club record this week. Milan have now scored in each of their last 18 away games in Serie A - only once have they ever put together a longer streak on the road, with 19 between March 1992 and April 1993.

Ibrahimovic has also scored in each of his last six league games against Cagliari, so it may well be the perfect time for the Swedish superstar to make his top flight comeback.

Eusebio Di Francesco, now in charge of Cagliari, pictured in September 2019© Reuters

Teetering on the brink of crisis, Cagliari are attempting to emerge from a painful run of form that has left them 16th in the standings and in threat of being sucked into the grind of a relegation battle.

Former Roma coach Eusebio Di Francesco's team often please the eye, but are too brittle in defence. The Isolani's last league victory dates back to early November and patience with their manager's protestations is gradually wearing thin.

Also eliminated from the Coppa Italia on Thursday - comfortably beaten 3-1 by Atalanta's shadow side at the Gewiss Stadium - Cagliari have lost each of their last four Serie A matches, which represents their worst run since 2013.

The contrast with 2019-20 is stark, as after 17 rounds last term, the Sardinians were on 29 points - this year they have totalled 14 in the equivalent period.

Talented winger Riccardo Sottil - a scorer in the cup exit during the week - has publicly claimed the squad are convinced that Di Francesco can turn things around and will keep the faith.

On Monday, Cagliari must rally together and demonstrate all their collective strength, as the club have won only one of their last 16 home games against Milan, losing nine.

Cagliari Serie A form: DDLLLL
Cagliari form (all competitions): DLLLLL

AC Milan Serie A form: DWWWLW
AC Milan form (all competitions): WWWLWD


Team News

AC Milan striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic pictured on January 9, 2021© Reuters

Still suffering the effects of a spate of injuries and illnesses, the Rossoneri arrive in Cagliari facing several important absences. However, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is fit to lead the line for Stefano Pioli's side.

The former Ajax star's timing is impeccable, as Rafael Leao is suspended and Ante Rebic self-isolating. Midfielder Rade Krunic also remains in quarantine, but Pioli hopes to have Ismael Bennacer and Alexis Saelemaekers (both thigh strains) back in action.

Centre-back Matteo Gabbia (knee) is in doubt too, while it has been confirmed that Milan will also be without Theo Hernandez and Hakan Calhanoglu, both of whom tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday.

Home coach Eusebio Di Francesco has some selection concerns of his own, with Marko Rog out for the season, Paolo Farago and Zito Luvumbo injured, plus centre-backs Ragnar Klavan and Andrea Carboni (both COVID-19) also out of contention.

High-energy midfielder Nahitan Nandez is still suspended after his red card in the defeat to Benevento, so Adam Ounas could start in the three supporting out-of-form Giovanni Simeone up front.

Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Zappa, Godin, Walukiewicz, Lykogiannis; Nainggolan, Marin; Sottil, Pedro, Ounas; Simeone

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calabria, Romagnoli, Kjaer, Dalot; Kessie, Tonali; Castillejo, Diaz, Hauge; Ibrahimovic


SM words green background

We say: Cagliari 1-2 AC Milan

Certainly not the best time to welcome league leaders Milan to Sardinia for the hapless home side, it is hard to see how Cagliari can get anything out of this game.

Despite their deepening illness issues, the Rossoneri can end Serie A's 18th round with a win to keep one step ahead of the chasing pack.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



ID:430800:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect10178:
Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 69.62%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 12.43%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.98%) and 1-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.47%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-0 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-2 win for AC Milan in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Cagliari vs AC Milan

Cagliari
10.8%
Draw
11.6%
AC Milan
77.5%
249
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Atalanta BCAtalanta17131342192340
2Napoli17122326121438
3Inter Milan15104140152534
4Lazio1711153224834
5Fiorentina1594228111731
6Juventus16610026121428
7Bologna167722318528
8AC Milan167542516926
9Udinese166281925-620
10Roma175482323019
11Empoli174761619-319
12Torino175481722-519
13Genoa173771426-1216
14Lecce174491129-1816
15Parma173682333-1015
16Como163671828-1015
17Hellas VeronaHellas Verona1750122140-1915
18CagliariCagliari173591628-1214
19VeneziaVenezia1734101730-1313
20Monza161781421-710


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