We said: Sevilla 0-2 Manchester City
With a new-look defence already under the cosh due to injuries and their attackers largely failing to fire, Sevilla's European baptism of fire is unlikely to end with home celebrations.
City's Premier League title defence may have already hit a couple of snags, but Guardiola's side are a dangerous beast when seeking to bounce back from a disappointment, and a comfortable away win is the only outcome that we can see here.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 53.41%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Sevilla had a probability of 21.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Sevilla win it was 1-0 (7.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
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