The Columbus Crew have an opportunity to extend their unbeaten run at Lower.com Field to six consecutive games in all competitions when they host Toronto on Saturday.
Both teams struggled defensively in Week Two of the Major League Soccer regular season, as the Crew squandered a late lead to the San Jose Earthquakes in a 3-3 draw, while The Reds conceded four first-half goals against the New York Red Bulls, losing 4-1.
Match preview
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With his side two goals to the good, along with a man advantage, Caleb Porter had to have been feeling like three points was right there for them against The Goonies.
Unfortunately, the 2020 MLS Cup-winning manager and his team learned a first-hand lesson on the importance of never taking a game for granted.
They were caught flat-footed on a pair of Quakes set-pieces, as Francisco Calvo buried a couple of headers in the 84th and 96th minute to take away two points from the Crew.
That draw had to have felt like a loss for the players, although Porter has to be happy with how sharp their shooting has been, notching seven strikes in their opening two fixtures, which is seven more than they had in their first two games of 2021.
Porter will be happy to know that two of their next three matches will take place in the Midwest, as his Crew have had a miserable time away from home in recent years, boasting only three wins in their last 28 road encounters, failing to score in nine of their 17 away games last season.
Picking up points at Historic Crew Stadium was a major challenge for opposing teams, who visited the Ohio capital through the years, and Columbus are starting to create quite the fortress in their new home, losing only one of their last eight regular-season matches played at Lower.com Field.
Having a healthy crop of players has made a significant difference in the early stages of this campaign, as Porter has been able to rely on some terrific quality in central midfield, with his players creating plenty of scoring opportunities, firing six or more shots on target in each of their first two games.
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If you evaluate their entire performance over 90 minutes in each of their first two matches of the season, Toronto have not been all that bad, however they are learning some hard lessons about the importance of never letting up.
On Saturday, Bob Bradley saw his youngsters suffer some mental breakdowns out wide, and the Red Bulls made them pay, taking a 4-1 lead into half time and cruising from there.
The score may not have been an indication of the game, however, and as well as Toronto controlled the midfield at times, there is still work to be done when it comes to allowing opposing sides to stretch them horizontally, while they are giving the opposition too much space in dangerous areas of the field.
Defending was a sore spot for this team in a dismal 2021 campaign, and those issues are rearing their ugly head early on this year, with The Reds conceding five goals after only two matches.
TFC come into this contest winless in eight successive MLS regular season affairs, and in 2021, they allowed multiple goals in 11 games, including seven in a disastrous match against DC United.
Dating back to last season, Toronto have not made life easy on themselves, conceding the opening goal in 10 consecutive regular-season encounters heading into this fixture.
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Team News
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Crew striker Kevin Molino is out with a right knee injury, Jake Morris remains sidelined with a right foot problem and Josh Williams continues to nurse a left thigh issue.
Lucas Zelarayan is off to a great start this year, scoring a pair of splendid strikes versus The Goonies, as he has three goals thus far, while their second-leading scorer from 2021, Gyasi Zardes, picked up his first of the campaign and Derrick Etienne has two goal involvements in two games, assisting on their second strike on Saturday.
Pedro Santos played a significant role in their victory over TFC in 2021, assisting on both goals in a 2-1 win, while Miguel Berry will look to build off his good early form, scoring once in his opening two fixtures.
Jesus Jimenez has begun his Toronto FC career brightly, with the Spaniard scoring the only goal in their defeat last weekend after setting up Jonathan Osorio in their opening match draw versus Dallas, while Ayo Akinola had the lone tally in their loss to the Crew last season, but he is unlikely to feature in this one with an ACL injury.
Bradley made two changes to his starting 11 in their home opener, as Shane O'Neill started alongside Carlos Salcedo in central defence, replacing Chris Mavinga, while Luca Petrasso was inserted into midfield rather than Deandre Kerr.
Alex Bono faced nine shots in their opening fixture at home against New York, conceding four times, while Jayden Nelson and Alejandro Pozuelo started in midfield for the second time this season but failed to create many opportunities as The Reds only had one effort on target last weekend.
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Santos, Jonathan, Degenek, Moreira; Artur, Nagbe; Etienne, Zelarayan, Morris; Zardes
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Shaffelburg, Mavinga, Salcedo, Marshall-Rutty; Osorio, Bradley; Okello, Pozuelo, Petrasso; Jimenez
We say: Columbus Crew 3-1 Toronto
The Crew seem to have rediscovered their confidence in front of goal, while Toronto are still learning how to remain consistent at the back, and we expect the Columbus firepower to overwhelm The Reds in this game.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Columbus Crew win with a probability of 63.44%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 16.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Columbus Crew win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.57%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (4.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Columbus Crew would win this match.
