We said: Mancha Real 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Whilst the hosts' cup run has been very impressive, it looks likely to come to an end on Thursday. They will put up a fight, and also have home advantage, but the extra quality in Les Leones' squad will surely prove to be too much for them.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 68.31%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Mancha Real had a probability of 11.25%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.42%) and 0-3 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Mancha Real win it was 1-0 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
