Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 65.03%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Caxias had a probability of 13.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.09%) and 1-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.03%), while for a Caxias win it was 1-0 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.