MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 18:33:05| >> :60:976:976:
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Aug 2, 2023 at 1am UK
Estadio Hernando Siles
Athletico Paranaense

Bolivar
3 - 1
Athletico PR

Fernandez (13', 76'), Bejarano (27')
Fernandez (76'), Villamil (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Erick (9')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Bolivar and Athletico Paranaense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bolivar

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Palmeiras 4-0 Bolivar
Friday, June 30 at 1am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Athletico Paranaense

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Athletico PR 3-3 Cruzeiro
Saturday, July 29 at 8pm in Brasileiro

We said: Bolivar 2-1 Athletico Paranaense

 On paper, Athletico have a side that we believe are superior to Bolivar, but something about the atmosphere in La Paz seems to bring out the best in the home team, and that, along with their splendid goalkeeping, might be enough for them to create a big surprise. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolivar win with a probability of 61.75%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 17.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolivar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.48%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (4.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolivar would win this match.

Result
BolivarDrawAthletico Paranaense
61.75% (0.15 0.15) 21.04% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07) 17.2% (-0.087 -0.09)
Both teams to score 52.96% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.47% (0.134 0.13)43.53% (-0.133 -0.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.08% (0.13 0.13)65.92% (-0.13 -0.13)
Bolivar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.43% (0.088000000000008 0.09)13.56% (-0.087999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.34% (0.175 0.17)40.66% (-0.175 -0.17)
Athletico Paranaense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.28% (-0.026999999999994 -0.03)38.72% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.54% (-0.023 -0.02)75.46% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Bolivar 61.75%
    Athletico Paranaense 17.2%
    Draw 21.05%
BolivarDrawAthletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 10.49% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 10.48% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.94%
3-0 @ 6.98% (0.027 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.62% (0.021 0.02)
4-0 @ 3.49% (0.025 0.03)
4-1 @ 3.31% (0.021 0.02)
3-2 @ 3.14% (0.008 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.57% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.39% (0.015 0.02)
5-1 @ 1.32% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 61.75%
1-1 @ 9.96% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-0 @ 5.25% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 21.05%
0-1 @ 4.98% (-0.033 -0.03)
1-2 @ 4.72% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-2 @ 2.36% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-3 @ 1.49% (-0.006 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.49% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.15%
Total : 17.2%

How you voted: Bolivar vs Athletico PR

Bolivar
80.0%
Draw
0.0%
Athletico Paranaense
20.0%
10
rhs 2.0
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