Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 51.07%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Aucas had a probability of 22.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Aucas win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Nacional would win this match.

Result
Club Nacional	Draw	Aucas
51.07% ( 0.21)	26.32% ( 0.04)	22.61% ( -0.25)

Both teams to score 45.58% (

-0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.35% (

-0.34)

57.65% (

0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.59% (

-0.27)

78.41% (

0.27)

Club Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.32% (

-0.05)

22.68% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.67% (

-0.07)

56.33% (

0.07)

Aucas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.95% (

-0.44)

41.05% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.4% (

-0.39)

77.6% (

0.39)

Score Analysis

Club Nacional 51.06%

Aucas 22.61%

Draw 26.31%

Club Nacional	Draw	Aucas
1-0 @ 13.81% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 51.06%	1-1 @ 12.29% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.65% Total : 26.31%	0-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.23% Total : 22.61%