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Copa Libertadores WWW header

Copa Libertadores
Penarol
Copa Libertadores | Semi-Finals | 2nd Leg
Oct 31, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Centenario
Botafogo logo

Penarol
3 - 1
Botafogo

Baez (31', 66'), Batista (89')
Sosa (86')
Aguerre (45+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Almada (88')
Bastos (28'), Martins (45+4'), Vitinho (49'), Ponte (69'), Almada (71')
Ponte (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Botafogo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Botafogo 5-0 Penarol
Thursday, October 24 at 1.45am in Copa Libertadores

Botafogo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Bragantino 0-1 Botafogo
Saturday, October 26 at 11pm in Brasileiro

We said: Penarol 1-2 Botafogo (Botafogo advance 7-1 on aggregate)

 Being so far behind heading into this decisive encounter will force Penarol to employ a very different approach than they are used to, and we do not see them being able to claim such a decisive victory against a side that have conceded the second-fewest goals (26) in the Brasileiro Serie A this year. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.35%. A draw had a probability of 31.3% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.06%) and 1-2 (7.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.01%), while for a Penarol win it was 1-0 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.

Result
PenarolDrawBotafogo
26.3% (0.111 0.11) 31.35% (0.604 0.6) 42.35% (-0.713 -0.71)
Both teams to score 36.64% (-1.223 -1.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
29.53% (-1.503 -1.5)70.47% (1.504 1.5)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
12.47% (-0.965 -0.97)87.53% (0.965 0.97)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.96% (-0.808 -0.81)45.04% (0.809 0.81)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.03% (-0.652 -0.65)80.97% (0.652 0.65)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.67% (-1.227 -1.23)33.33% (1.226 1.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.05% (-1.368 -1.37)69.95% (1.37 1.37)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 26.3%
    Botafogo 42.35%
    Draw 31.34%
PenarolDrawBotafogo
1-0 @ 11.97% (0.39 0.39)
2-1 @ 5.25% (-0.121 -0.12)
2-0 @ 4.78% (0.052 0.05)
3-1 @ 1.4% (-0.064 -0.06)
3-0 @ 1.27% (-0.015 -0.02)
Other @ 1.64%
Total : 26.3%
0-0 @ 15.01% (0.81 0.81)
1-1 @ 13.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.88% (-0.167 -0.17)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 31.34%
0-1 @ 16.49% (0.36 0.36)
0-2 @ 9.06% (-0.105 -0.11)
1-2 @ 7.23% (-0.25 -0.25)
0-3 @ 3.32% (-0.153 -0.15)
1-3 @ 2.65% (-0.185 -0.19)
2-3 @ 1.06% (-0.099 -0.1)
0-4 @ 0.91% (-0.074 -0.07)
Other @ 1.64%
Total : 42.35%

How you voted: Penarol vs Botafogo

Penarol
27.6%
Draw
10.3%
Botafogo
62.1%
29
Head to Head
Oct 24, 2024 1.45am
Semi-Finals 1st Leg
Botafogo
5-0
Penarol
Savarino (51', 60'), Barboza (56'), Henrique (74'), Jesus (79')
Henrique (13'), Jesus (36'), Gregore (61'), Jorge (61')

Perez (36')
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