MX23RW : Tuesday, December 24 12:48:53| >> :600:2213673:2213673:
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Copa Libertadores
Botafogo logo
Copa Libertadores | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Oct 24, 2024 at 1.45am UK
Estadio Nilton Santos
Penarol

Botafogo
5 - 0
Penarol

Savarino (51', 60'), Barboza (56'), Henrique (74'), Jesus (79')
Henrique (13'), Jesus (36'), Gregore (61'), Jorge (61')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Perez (36')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Botafogo and Penarol, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Botafogo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Botafogo 1-1 Criciuma
Saturday, October 19 at 12am in Brasileiro

Penarol

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Penarol 2-0 Boston River
Saturday, October 19 at 11.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

We said: Botafogo 1-0 Penarol

 The Penarol backline will be difficult to penetrate, but Fogo are equally sharp on the back end, and we believe they will eventually find a way to score as they have throughout the campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 62.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 15.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.63%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.

Result
BotafogoDrawPenarol
62.17% (-0.91 -0.91) 22.62% (0.314 0.31) 15.21% (0.594 0.59)
Both teams to score 43.95% (0.444 0.44)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.61% (-0.155 -0.16)53.38% (0.151 0.15)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.08% (-0.13 -0.13)74.92% (0.128 0.13)
Botafogo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.28% (-0.366 -0.37)16.71% (0.364 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.38% (-0.655 -0.66)46.61% (0.653 0.65)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.77% (0.761 0.76)47.23% (-0.764 -0.76)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.34% (0.566 0.57)82.66% (-0.56700000000001 -0.57)
Score Analysis
    Botafogo 62.16%
    Penarol 15.21%
    Draw 22.61%
BotafogoDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 14.12% (-0.090000000000002 -0.09)
2-0 @ 12.63% (-0.23 -0.23)
2-1 @ 9.48% (0.029 0.03)
3-0 @ 7.53% (-0.235 -0.24)
3-1 @ 5.65% (-0.052 -0.05)
4-0 @ 3.37% (-0.147 -0.15)
4-1 @ 2.53% (-0.054 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.12% (0.026 0.03)
5-0 @ 1.21% (-0.069 -0.07)
4-2 @ 0.95% (0.001 0)
5-1 @ 0.9% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.69%
Total : 62.16%
1-1 @ 10.59% (0.16 0.16)
0-0 @ 7.89% (0.047 0.05)
2-2 @ 3.55% (0.087 0.09)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 22.61%
0-1 @ 5.92% (0.161 0.16)
1-2 @ 3.97% (0.144 0.14)
0-2 @ 2.22% (0.107 0.11)
1-3 @ 0.99% (0.056 0.06)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 15.21%

How you voted: Botafogo vs Penarol

Botafogo
87.9%
Draw
6.1%
Penarol
6.1%
33
rhs 2.0
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