Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Patronato had a probability of 32.75% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.74%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest Patronato win was 1-0 (11.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.