We said: Udinese 2-0 Salernitana
These sides played out two 1-1 draws in Serie A last season, but Udinese are set to come out on top in Wednesday's cup clash, which will see Salernitana having to journey hundreds of miles north.
With momentum on their side and some promising squad players standing ready to be promoted, the Friulani should get the job done against opponents that do not travel well.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 50.95%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 25.82% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Udinese would win this match.