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Brest logo
Coupe de France | Round of 32
Jan 22, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Ble
Lens logo

Brest
1 - 3
Lens

Slimani (19')
Lees-Melou (32')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Said (5'), Medina (30'), Thomasson (37')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Coupe de France clash between Brest and Lens, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Brest

All competitions
Last Game: Toulouse 1-1 Brest
Sunday, January 15 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Lens

All competitions
Last Game: Lens 1-0 Auxerre
Saturday, January 14 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Brest 1-2 Lens

 Both sides possess plenty of talented attacking players, who may be liberated without the pressure of competing at either ends of the league table. As such, we expect to seen an entertaining encounter at Stade Francis Le Ble on Sunday. However, there is little doubt that Lens head into the cup tie in significantly better form than Brest, and they are therefore the more likely victors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Brest had a probability of 21.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.83%) and 0-2 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Brest win it was 1-0 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawLens
21.84% (0.104 0.1) 23.25% (0.028000000000002 0.03) 54.91% (-0.132 -0.13)
Both teams to score 53.64% (0.056999999999995 0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.48% (0.0030000000000001 0)46.52% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.2% (0.0040000000000013 0)68.8% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.48% (0.10299999999999 0.1)35.52% (-0.102 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.71% (0.104 0.1)72.29% (-0.105 -0.11)
Lens Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.18% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05)16.82% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.2% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)46.8% (0.079999999999998 0.08)
Score Analysis
    Brest 21.84%
    Lens 54.9%
    Draw 23.25%
BrestDrawLens
1-0 @ 6.18% (0.016 0.02)
2-1 @ 5.71% (0.022 0.02)
2-0 @ 3.2% (0.017 0.02)
3-1 @ 1.97% (0.013 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.76% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.1% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 21.84%
1-1 @ 11.02% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 5.97%
2-2 @ 5.09% (0.012 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.04% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 23.25%
0-1 @ 10.64% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-2 @ 9.83% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 9.49% (-0.030999999999999 -0.03)
1-3 @ 5.84% (-0.010999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 5.64% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.02% (0.0029999999999997 0)
1-4 @ 2.6% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-4 @ 2.51% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.35% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
1-5 @ 0.93% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 54.9%

How you voted: Brest vs Lens

Brest
16.7%
Draw
10.0%
Lens
73.3%
30
Head to Head
Aug 7, 2022 2pm
Lens
3-2
Brest
Sotoca (27', 62', 65')
Costa (38'), Danso (78')
Belkebla (66'), Del Castillo (82' pen.)
Lees-Melou (31'), Belaili (43'), Brassier (62'), Chardonnet (71')
Mar 5, 2022 4pm
Lens
0-1
Brest

Medina (67')
Honorat (59')
Belkebla (54')
Nov 21, 2021 12pm
Brest
4-0
Lens
Mounie (3'), Chardonnet (13'), Faivre (33'), Le Douaron (69')
Duverne (58')

Medina (36'), Doucoure (76')
Kalimuendo (74')
Apr 18, 2021 2pm
Brest
1-1
Lens
Cahuzac (37' og.), Kakuta (72' pen.)
Bade (35'), Haidara (48'), Fortes (54'), Banza (59'), Clauss (63'), Lucas (87')
Haise (65'), Fortes (81'), Lucas (89'), Banza (89')
Dec 23, 2020 6pm
Lens
2-1
Brest
Kalimuendo (11'), Sotoca (34' pen.)
Charbonnier (90+4' pen.)
Pierre-Gabriel (13'), Duverne (32')
rhs 2.0
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