Two teams who enjoyed positive results on matchday two in World Cup Qualifying Group H prepare to face off at Stadion Rujevica on Tuesday as Croatia play host to Malta.
The hosts overcame Cyprus 1-0 to kickstart their road to Qatar last time out, while Malta managed to hold Slovakia to a 2-2 draw on Saturday.
Match preview
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A lowly 1-0 defeat to Slovenia was the worst possible opening to qualification for the 2018 World Cup runners-up, but Croatia managed to right the wrongs of midweek by prevailing against Cyprus by the same scoreline at the weekend.
Atalanta's Mario Pasalic was welcomed back to the starting lineup with open arms and struck the only goal of the game in the 40th minute, with that result ending a barren run of five games without a win for Zlatko Dalic's men after three successive defeats to Sweden, Portugal and most recently Slovenia.
With Russia being the only team able to boast a perfect record from their two qualification matches so far, Slovenia and Croatia are neck-and-neck in second and third respectively - with the former ahead on head-to-head points - and the battle to secure a top-two finish is expected to right down to the wire should Slovakia start firing on all cylinders soon.
Speaking of firing on all cylinders, Croatia will be aiming to find the back of the net for the 13th game in a row at home this week, and they have notched up at least two strikes in nine of their previous 12 on familiar territory, but Dalic has been dealt yet another injury blow to one of his strikers ahead of this match.
Already without Bruno Petkovic and Ante Rebic, Hoffenheim's Andrej Kramaric has sustained an ankle problem to further limit Dalic's options up top, although the hosts should still be confident of keeping their scoring streak at home going against Malta's leaky defence.
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For a side ranked 176th in the world, Malta took no notice of the numbers against 34th-ranked Slovakia, who quickly found themselves 2-0 down at the break on their own patch following Luke Gambin and Alexander Satariano's first goals for their country.
Only a third ever victory in 102 attempts during World Cup Qualifying appeared to be on the cards for Malta, but Slovakia were extremely quick to restore parity through David Strelec and Milan Skriniar before the hour mark, although the hosts ultimately did not make their dominance count as Malta claimed an impressive away point.
Out of their 102 World Cup Qualifying fixtures, Malta have lost 90 of them, so managing to hold Slovakia to a stalemate is a huge success for Devis Mangia, whose team had simply been brushed aside by Russia on the opening matchday in Group H.
Incredibly, this week's visitors have now lost just one of their last nine games in all competitions - although the calibre of their Nations League opponents in Andorra, Latvia and the Faroe Islands must be taken into account - but Mangia has nonetheless created a positive atmosphere within the camp as they look to pull off an improbable win against Dalic's Croatia.
However, Malta have tried and failed eight times to get the better of Croatia since 1998 - with the Chequered Ones coming out on top seven times - and Ivan Perisic's strike was enough for Croatia to win 1-0 in the most recent meeting during qualification for Euro 2016.
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Team News
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As mentioned, Kramaric's ankle injury has ruled him out of this game, so Ante Budimir should be handed another chance up top unless Perisic is shifted to a central role.
Luka Modric became his country's all-time most capped player after turning out for the 135th time in Croatian colours against Cyprus, but his 35-year-old legs may not be ready for a third start in the space of a week, so Mateo Kovacic could return here.
Nikola Vlasic and Domagoj Vida are also candidates to return to the first XI this week, while Dinamo Zagreb's Europa League hero Mislav Orsic has appeared twice off the bench now and will also hope to be given a chance to impress from the off.
In contrast, Malta boss Mangia has very few concerns up top and is blessed with an array of attacking options, although Satariano is in no position to relinquish his spot despite pressure from Luke Montebello, who has now gone nine games without opening his account for the national team.
It would be harsh for Mangia to drop any member of the XI from their draw with Slovakia, but tired legs could force his hand, meaning that Kyrian Nwoko will hope to earn a recall to the starting lineup.
Midfield lynchpin Matthew Guillaumier has played 180 minutes in the space of three days and could therefore be one player that Mangia opts to rest, with Bjorn Kristensen capable of filling the void in the engine room.
Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Juranovic, Vida, Caleta-Car, Barisic; Kovacic, Brozovic; Vlasic, Pasalic, Orsic; Budimir
Malta possible starting lineup:
Bonello, Agius, Shaw, Borg; J. Mbong, Kristensen, Teuma, Camenzuli; Nwoko, Gambin; Satariano
We say: Croatia 2-0 Malta
Malta's goal-laden games make for good viewing for the neutrals, but Croatia will be quick to quell any threat from Mangia's men here as they seek to improve their own clinical nature in front of goal. The 142 places between Slovakia and Malta in the world rankings had no effect on the visitors at the weekend, but we do not expect lightning to strike twice here and are backing Croatia to get the job done with minimal trouble.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 85.42%. A draw had a probability of 10.3% and a win for Malta had a probability of 4.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.89%) and 4-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.88%), while for a Malta win it was 0-1 (1.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Croatia would win this match.
