Age-old rivals Ecuador and Peru are set to battle it out once again on Tuesday night in the next round of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers.
Coming just 15 days before these two nations meet again in the group stages of the Copa America, this tie could be a good indication of how both teams will fare this summer.
Match preview
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Gustavo Alfaro's high-flying Ecuador side were taken down a peg or two last week when they were beaten 2-0 by Brazil in their World Cup qualification tie.
Despite fielding a strong starting 11, Alfaro's men were put to the sword by Selecao, with Ecuador failing to even register a shot on target throughout the entirety of the 90 minutes.
Yet despite that result, Ecuador find themselves in third place in qualification, behind only the continental heavyweights of Argentina and Brazil.
Against Peru, Alfaro will be confident his team can come away with all three points.
The country's joint top-scorer of all time, Enner Valencia, has struggled to find the net in recent matches but might relish his chances against a Peru side that are devoid of confidence.
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With Peru losing and Bolivia picking up their first win of the qualification campaign last week, La Blanquirroja now find themselves at the foot of the table with just one point from their first five games.
Ricardo Gareca's team were beaten 3-0 by Colombia last Friday in a fiery contest that saw the referee brandish two red cards and six yellow cards.
Peru's Miguel Trauco was the man who saw red for La Blanquirroja, while Yerry Mina, Mateus Uribe and Luis Diaz all notched significant goals for Colombia.
Adrift at the bottom of the pack, things are not looking good for Gareca's side, whose chances of World Cup qualification are looking just about as slim as their chances at the Copa America this summer.
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Team News
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In a bid to shake things up in attack, Alfaro may be tempted to field the likes of Fidel Martinez and Michael Estrada, who have both performed well in the past for the national team.
All in all, Brazil are not easy to play against and Alfaro is not likely to change his starting 11 too drastically as a result of that encounter.
Peru will be without the suspended Trauco and the 21-year-old Marcos Lopez could deputise for him.
Paolo Guerrero is likely to retain his spot at the heart of the attack.
Ecuador possible starting lineup:
Dominguez; Preciado, Arboleda, Arreaga, Estupinan; Franco, Mendez, Gruezo, Preciado; Martinez, Valencia
Peru possible starting lineup:
Gallese; Corzo, Ramos, Abram, Lopez; Advincula, Yotun, Tapia, Cueva, Carrillo; Guerrero
We say: Ecuador 2-0 Peru
It is difficult to convey just how poor Peru have been in recent fixtures, but there is absolutely no reason why Ecuador cannot pick up the three points on Tuesday night. We are saying 2-0.
Top tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 58.83%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Peru had a probability of 17.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (6.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
Argentina
Uruguay
Ecuador
Colombia
Brazil
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Chile
Peru
