Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 31.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.81%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.