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EFL Cup
Port Vale
EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Vale Park
Sutton United

Port Vale
2 - 1
Sutton

Thomas (49'), Ojo (83')
Chislett (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kasimu (70')
Angol (6'), Kizzi (32'), Goodliffe (56'), O'Brien (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Port Vale and Sutton United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Port Vale

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Cambridge 1-1 Port Vale
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One

Sutton United

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Sutton 1-1 MK Dons
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Port Vale 2-1 Sutton United

 Although Sutton have knocked out two teams in League One to book their place in third round, we think that they will be unable to repeat that feat on Tuesday. We believe that the Valiants will prove too strong for a Sutton side who have failed to win any of their last five competitive games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 53.98%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 21.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Port Vale in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.

Result
Port ValeDrawSutton United
53.98% (0.269 0.27) 24.17% (-0.096 -0.1) 21.84% (-0.183 -0.18)
Both teams to score 50.75% (0.050999999999995 0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.65% (0.183 0.18)50.35% (-0.192 -0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.71% (0.164 0.16)72.29% (-0.172 -0.17)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.43% (0.17100000000001 0.17)18.57% (-0.18 -0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.17% (0.292 0.29)49.83% (-0.301 -0.3)
Sutton United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
62.32% (-0.075000000000003 -0.08)37.68% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
25.54% (-0.073 -0.07)74.45% (0.063000000000002 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 53.98%
    Sutton United 21.84%
    Draw 24.17%
Port ValeDrawSutton United
1-0 @ 11.77% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
2-0 @ 9.92% (0.036 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.68% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
3-0 @ 5.57% (0.051 0.05)
3-1 @ 5.43% (0.04 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.015 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.34% (0.035 0.04)
4-1 @ 2.29% (0.03 0.03)
4-2 @ 1.12% (0.012 0.01)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 53.98%
1-1 @ 11.49% (-0.049999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 7% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 24.17%
0-1 @ 6.83% (-0.066 -0.07)
1-2 @ 5.61% (-0.033 -0.03)
0-2 @ 3.33% (-0.039 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.83% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.54% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.08% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 1.62%
Total : 21.84%

How you voted: Port Vale vs Sutton

Port Vale
79.3%
Draw
17.2%
Sutton United
3.4%
29
Head to Head
Mar 26, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 39
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2-0
Sutton
Wilson (7'), Proctor (23')
Walker (53'), Proctor (70')

John (66')
> Preview
Oct 9, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 11
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Bouzanis (90+7')
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