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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 39.75%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Sutton United | Draw | MK Dons |
39.75% ( -0.1) | 26.02% ( -0.14) | 34.23% ( 0.24) |
Both teams to score 53.9% ( 0.52) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.52% ( 0.64) | 50.48% ( -0.64) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.59% ( 0.56) | 72.41% ( -0.56) |
Sutton United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.01% ( 0.24) | 24.99% ( -0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.36% ( 0.33) | 59.64% ( -0.33) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.85% ( 0.46) | 28.14% ( -0.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.17% ( 0.58) | 63.83% ( -0.58) |
Score Analysis |
Sutton United | Draw | MK Dons |
1-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 8.57% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.76% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 3.96% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.13% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.08% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 39.75% | 1-1 @ 12.36% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.03% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.13% Total : 26.01% | 0-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 7.84% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 5.65% 1-3 @ 3.31% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 0.06) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.78% Total : 34.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
9 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 17 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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