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Bristol Rovers
EFL Trophy | Third Round
Dec 13, 2022 at 7.30pm UK
Memorial Stadium
MK Dons

Bristol Rovers
4 - 1
MK Dons

Hoole (33'), Marquis (54', 66'), Saunders (71')
McCormick (82')
Kilgour (77')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Eisa (79' pen.)
Johnson (45+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Bristol Rovers and MK Dons, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bristol Rovers

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-0 Port Vale
Saturday, December 10 at 3pm in League One

MK Dons

All competitions
EFL Trophy
Last Game: MK Dons 1-2 Fleetwood
Saturday, December 10 at 3pm in League One

We said: Bristol Rovers 2-1 MK Dons

 MK Dons have been in strong form in the EFL Trophy this season, but Bristol Rovers have only lost one of their last seven games in all competitions, and we are finding it difficult to look past Barton's side here when it comes to choosing a winner. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 47.02%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 28.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 0-1 (7.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bristol Rovers would win this match.

Result
Bristol RoversDrawMK Dons
47.02% (-0.973 -0.97) 24.6% (0.073 0.07) 28.39% (0.9 0.9)
Both teams to score 55.99% (0.438 0.44)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.42% (0.264 0.26)46.58% (-0.263 -0.26)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.14% (0.246 0.25)68.86% (-0.245 -0.25)
Bristol Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.11% (-0.29899999999999 -0.3)19.89% (0.3 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.98% (-0.489 -0.49)52.02% (0.49 0.49)
MK Dons Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.89% (0.803 0.8)30.11% (-0.803 -0.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.75% (0.954 0.95)66.25% (-0.95399999999999 -0.95)
Score Analysis
    Bristol Rovers 47.02%
    MK Dons 28.39%
    Draw 24.6%
Bristol RoversDrawMK Dons
1-0 @ 9.67% (-0.2 -0.2)
2-1 @ 9.37% (-0.071999999999999 -0.07)
2-0 @ 7.81% (-0.237 -0.24)
3-1 @ 5.05% (-0.087 -0.09)
3-0 @ 4.2% (-0.168 -0.17)
3-2 @ 3.03% (0.015 0.02)
4-1 @ 2.04% (-0.055 -0.06)
4-0 @ 1.7% (-0.085 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.22% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 47.02%
1-1 @ 11.61% (0.02 0.02)
0-0 @ 5.99% (-0.067 -0.07)
2-2 @ 5.63% (0.081 0.08)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.033 0.03)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.6%
0-1 @ 7.19% (0.079 0.08)
1-2 @ 6.97% (0.165 0.17)
0-2 @ 4.32% (0.142 0.14)
1-3 @ 2.79% (0.126 0.13)
2-3 @ 2.25% (0.081 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.73% (0.093 0.09)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 28.39%

How you voted: Bristol Rovers vs MK Dons

Bristol Rovers
72.4%
Draw
13.8%
MK Dons
13.8%
29
Head to Head
Oct 11, 2022 7.45pm
MK Dons
0-1
Bristol Rovers
Evans (76' pen.)
Collins (15')
Apr 20, 2021 7pm
Bristol Rovers
0-2
MK Dons

Rodman (42'), McCormick (70'), Martinez (85'), Kilgour (90+1')
Fraser (17'), Grigg (60')
Sorinola (45'), Kasumu (55'), Fisher (78')
Dec 26, 2020 3pm
MK Dons
2-0
Bristol Rovers
Gladwin (45+3'), Fraser (63')
Gladwin (47'), Keogh (90+5')

McCormick (85')
Jan 1, 2020 3pm
MK Dons
3-0
Bristol Rovers
Healey (16'), Nombe (60'), Agard (84')
Oct 12, 2019 3pm
Bristol Rovers
1-0
MK Dons
Davies (49')
Rodman (30')

Martin (20'), Cargill (60')
rhs 2.0
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