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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 63.24%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 17.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.74%) and 0-1 (7.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for a Groningen win it was 2-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
17.53% ( 0.29) | 19.22% ( 0.21) | 63.24% ( -0.49) |
Both teams to score 60.23% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.63% ( -0.51) | 34.37% ( 0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.72% ( -0.57) | 56.28% ( 0.57) |
Groningen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.21% ( -0) | 32.8% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.64% ( -0) | 69.36% ( 0) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.62% ( -0.27) | 10.39% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.09% ( -0.61) | 33.91% ( 0.61) |
Score Analysis |
Groningen | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 3.8% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.02% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.03% Total : 17.53% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.27% Total : 19.22% | 1-2 @ 9.74% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 7.35% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 6.59% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 4.16% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 3.73% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 2.32% ( -0.05) 1-5 @ 1.89% ( -0.06) 0-5 @ 1.69% ( -0.05) 2-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 4.17% Total : 63.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 9 | 28 | 30 |
2 | Ajax | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 25 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
4 | Feyenoord | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 22 |
5 | FC Twente | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 21 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 17 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
9 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
10 | NECNijmegen | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
11 | Willem II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
12 | Heracles | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 12 |
13 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
14 | Heerenveen | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 11 |
15 | Groningen | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 9 |
16 | PEC Zwolle | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 9 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 28 | -18 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |