Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.95%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for PEC Zwolle had a probability of 10.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.94%), while for a PEC Zwolle win it was 1-2 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
