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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.63%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 10.22%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 3-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.95%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (3.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
74.63% ( 0.46) | 15.16% ( -0.22) | 10.22% ( -0.24) |
Both teams to score 54.23% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
67.95% ( 0.37) | 32.05% ( -0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
46.38% ( 0.43) | 53.62% ( -0.43) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.74% ( 0.18) | 7.26% ( -0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.7% ( 0.46) | 26.3% ( -0.46) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.47% ( -0.17) | 41.53% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.98% ( -0.15) | 78.02% ( 0.15) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
2-0 @ 10.36% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 7.97% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 5.95% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 5.23% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 2.74% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.05) 5-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) 6-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.62% Total : 74.62% | 1-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 3.01% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 15.16% | 1-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.18% Total : 10.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 21 |
2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 16 |
4 | FC Twente | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
5 | Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
6 | Feyenoord | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
7 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
9 | Groningen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Heracles | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 |
11 | Willem II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 8 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
14 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
15 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
16 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 2 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -16 | 0 |
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