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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 78.07%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 8.24%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.35%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 1-2 (2.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
78.07% ( -0.07) | 13.68% ( 0.04) | 8.24% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 51.33% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.59% ( -0.07) | 31.41% ( 0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.13% ( -0.08) | 52.87% ( 0.08) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.55% ( -0.03) | 6.45% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
75.87% ( -0.07) | 24.13% ( 0.07) |
RKC Waalwijk Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.87% ( 0.02) | 45.13% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.96% ( 0.02) | 81.03% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.7% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.95% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.85% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 3.75% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( 0) 5-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 3.88% Total : 78.07% | 1-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.96% Total : 13.68% | 1-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 0.92% ( 0) 2-3 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.56% Total : 8.24% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |