PSV will be full of confidence coming into this game having had such an excellent season, while AZ are sure to be in short supply having suffered a humiliating 5-0 defeat in their last outing, leading us to believe the league leaders will win this one.
The two top scorers in the division are set to come face to face in this one, and we expect both to get on the scoresheet here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 53.61%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 23.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 (6.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
0.54) 
-0.19) 
