Eredivisie | Gameweek 17

Jan 21, 2023 at 5.45pm UK

Goffertstadion

Nijmegen
3 - 1
Emmen

Dimata (12' pen., 35'), Cissoko (52')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Zivkovic (44')
Zivkovic (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Eredivisie clash between NEC and Emmen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

NEC

All competitions

Last Game: Vitesse 0-0 Nijmegen
Sunday, January 15 at 11.15am in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Emmen

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Emmen 0-0 Cambuur
Sunday, January 15 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We expect this game to be a closely-fought contest given the fact that both sides do not tend to score many goals. However, Emmen have conceded 19 goals in eight matches on their travels this season and have the worst away record in the division, so we are expecting the home side to prevail here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Emmen had a probability of 37.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.06%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Emmen win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.

Result
NEC	Draw	Emmen
37.72% ( -0.24)	24.84% ( 0.08)	37.45% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 58.37% (

-0.29)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.12% (

-0.37)

44.88% (

0.38)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.76% (

-0.36)

67.24% (

0.36)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.47% (

-0.29)

23.53% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.43% (

-0.43)

57.58% (

0.43)

Emmen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.33% (

-0.08)

23.67% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.22% (

-0.12)

57.78% (

0.12)

Score Analysis

NEC 37.72%

Emmen 37.45%

Draw 24.83%

NEC	Draw	Emmen
2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.47% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.1% Total : 37.72%	1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.83%	1-2 @ 8.37% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 5.78% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 4.02% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.45%