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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Utrecht win with a probability of 49.13%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 27.67% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Utrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (7.38%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Utrecht would win this match.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Utrecht |
27.67% ( 0.22) | 23.19% ( 0.09) | 49.13% ( -0.32) |
Both teams to score 60.26% ( -0.13) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.29% ( -0.25) | 40.7% ( 0.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.91% ( -0.26) | 63.09% ( 0.25) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.4% ( 0.03) | 27.59% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.87% ( 0.04) | 63.12% ( -0.04) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.22% ( -0.21) | 16.77% ( 0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.28% ( -0.38) | 46.71% ( 0.37) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | FC Utrecht |
2-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.94% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.62% 3-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.87% Total : 27.67% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.63% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.18% | 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 7.38% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.65% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 4.39% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.52% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 1-5 @ 0.9% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.3% Total : 49.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 9 | 36 | 36 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 31 |
3 | Ajax | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 29 |
4 | Feyenoord | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 28 |
5 | FC Twente | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 25 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 20 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 17 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
10 | Willem II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 16 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 16 |
12 | Heerenveen | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
13 | Heracles | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 13 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 |
15 | Groningen | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 30 | -24 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 5 |
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