Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 40.42%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 35.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.31%) and 0-2 (5.83%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.