MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 17:30:03| >> :600:396508:396508:
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Europa League
Leverkusen logo
Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 9, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
BayArena
Ferencvaros

B. Leverkusen
2 - 0
Ferencvaros

Demirbay (9'), Tapsoba (86')
Demirbay (38'), Alonso (38'), Wirtz (75'), Odilon (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Marquinhos (45'), Zachariassen (49'), Botka (75'), Civic (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Ferencvaros, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 4-1 Hertha Berlin
Sunday, March 5 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Ferencvaros

All competitions
Last Game: Trabzonspor 1-0 Ferencvaros
Thursday, November 3 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Ferencvaros

 Having significantly improved throughout Alonso's tenure, Leverkusen should have too much quality for their opponents on Thursday. However, the Hungarian champions are likely to battle hard and will retain a threat in transition with the quality of Adama Traore and Tokmac Nguen, so it would be little surprise if they score to keep the tie alive ahead of the return leg in Budapest next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 58.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Ferencvaros had a probability of 20.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.34%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Ferencvaros win it was 1-2 (5.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawFerencvaros
58.2% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02) 21.58% (0.004999999999999 0) 20.21% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 56.78% (0.014000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.82% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)41.17%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.43%63.57% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.11% (-0.0080000000000098 -0.01)13.88% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.7% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)41.29% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Ferencvaros Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.93% (0.019999999999996 0.02)34.06% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.25% (0.020999999999997 0.02)70.74% (-0.022000000000006 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 58.2%
    Ferencvaros 20.21%
    Draw 21.57%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawFerencvaros
2-1 @ 9.93%
1-0 @ 9.34% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 9.22% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.54% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-0 @ 6.07% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.52% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-1 @ 3.23% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-0 @ 3% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.74%
5-1 @ 1.27% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.18% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 58.2%
1-1 @ 10.05%
2-2 @ 5.35% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-0 @ 4.73%
3-3 @ 1.26% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 21.57%
1-2 @ 5.42% (0.0040000000000004 0)
0-1 @ 5.09% (0.0029999999999992 0)
0-2 @ 2.74% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.94% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.92% (0.002 0)
0-3 @ 0.98% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.12%
Total : 20.21%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Ferencvaros

Bayer Leverkusen
83.2%
Draw
6.7%
Ferencvaros
10.1%
119
Head to Head
Dec 9, 2021 8pm
Group G
Ferencvaros
1-0
B. Leverkusen
Laidouni (82')
Laidouni (84'), Blazic (90'), Cabraja (90+2')

Bellarabi (26'), Retsos (86'), Odilon (87')
Sep 16, 2021 5.45pm
Group G
B. Leverkusen
2-1
Ferencvaros
Palacios (37'), Wirtz (69')
Demirbay (10')
Mmaee (8')
rhs 2.0
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