Europa League

Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg

Feb 16, 2023 at 8pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
2 - 3
Monaco

(agg: -)

Diaby (48'), Wirtz (59')
Tapsoba (14'), Wirtz (50'), Adli (63')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Hradecky (9' og.), Diatta (74'), Disasi (90+2')
Camara (63'), Maripan (84'), Diatta (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Monaco, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Last Game: Hoffenheim 1-3 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, February 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Monaco

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Monaco 3-1 PSG
Saturday, February 11 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 Monaco

Monaco seem to come to life every season at the beginning of the calendar year, and their form domestically has been a lot more consistent when compared to their German counterparts this month. Leverkusen have been better at home in the Bundesliga of late but have not been quite as sharp against the elite teams in Germany, and there is not much evidence to suggest they can improve their poor form in Europe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 48.81%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Monaco win was 0-1 (7.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Monaco
48.81% ( 0.12)	24.62% ( -0)	26.58% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 54.5% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.11% (

-0.06)

47.89% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.93% (

-0.05)

70.07% (

0.06)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.33% (

0.03)

19.67% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.35% (

0.04)

51.65% (

-0.04)

Monaco Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.84% (

-0.12)

32.16% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.35% (

-0.13)

68.65% (

0.14)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 48.8%

Monaco 26.58%

Draw 24.61%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Monaco
1-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.92% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 2.95% Total : 48.8%	1-1 @ 11.66% 0-0 @ 6.33% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.61%	0-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.62% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.64% Total : 26.58%