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Bundesliga | Gameweek 21
Feb 19, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
BayArena
Mainz logo

B. Leverkusen
2 - 3
Mainz

Amiri (32'), Schick (58')
Alonso (45+5'), Hincapie (62'), Frimpong (83'), Tah (87'), Hlozek (88'), Andrich (88')
Adli (80')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Caci (26'), Barreiro (45+4'), Ingvartsen (82' pen.)
Svensson (45+8'), Bell (45+8'), Hanche-Olsen (55'), Barreiro (79'), Ingvartsen (83'), Kohr (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: B. Leverkusen 2-3 Monaco
Thursday, February 16 at 8pm in Europa League

Mainz 05

All competitions
Bundesliga
Last Game: Mainz 3-1 Augsburg
Saturday, February 11 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Mainz 05

 With Leverkusen losing to Monaco less than 72 hours prior to kickoff against Mainz on Sunday, we believe the visitors can claim a positive result at the BayArena. Svensson's side have been decent away from home this season, with their front three undoubtedly capable of causing the hosts significant issues in transition. Both teams may settle for a share of the spoils should the match be heading in that direction. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 57.2%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 20.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
57.2% (0.29799999999999 0.3) 22.45% (-0.09 -0.09) 20.34% (-0.213 -0.21)
Both teams to score 54.03% (-0.042000000000002 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.08% (0.106 0.11)44.92% (-0.11000000000001 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.72% (0.103 0.1)67.27% (-0.107 -0.11)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.53% (0.134 0.13)15.46% (-0.137 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.67% (0.253 0.25)44.33% (-0.258 -0.26)
Mainz 05 Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.91% (-0.15499999999999 -0.15)36.08% (0.149 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.13% (-0.156 -0.16)72.86% (0.151 0.15)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 57.19%
    Mainz 05 20.34%
    Draw 22.45%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawMainz 05
1-0 @ 10.41%
2-1 @ 9.91% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.72% (0.047000000000001 0.05)
3-1 @ 6.17% (0.034000000000001 0.03)
3-0 @ 6.05% (0.058000000000001 0.06)
3-2 @ 3.14% (0.0049999999999999 0)
4-1 @ 2.88% (0.03 0.03)
4-0 @ 2.82% (0.04 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.47% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
5-1 @ 1.07% (0.016 0.02)
5-0 @ 1.05% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 57.19%
1-1 @ 10.61% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
0-0 @ 5.58% (-0.026000000000001 -0.03)
2-2 @ 5.05% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 22.45%
0-1 @ 5.69% (-0.051 -0.05)
1-2 @ 5.41% (-0.045000000000001 -0.05)
0-2 @ 2.9% (-0.038 -0.04)
1-3 @ 1.84% (-0.022 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.72% (-0.013 -0.01)
0-3 @ 0.99% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 20.34%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs Mainz

Bayer Leverkusen
67.1%
Draw
24.3%
Mainz 05
8.6%
70
Head to Head
Aug 27, 2022 2.30pm
Mainz
0-3
B. Leverkusen

Burgzorg (70')
Palacios (29'), Frimpong (39', 41')
Hincapie (3'), Andrich (45'), Frimpong (60'), Bakker (76')
Hincapie (77'), Bakker (90+4')
Feb 18, 2022 7.30pm
Mainz
3-2
B. Leverkusen
Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')
Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')
Sep 25, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
1-0
Mainz
Wirtz (62')
Tah (11'), Diaby (44'), Bakker (83'), Alario (90+3')

Lucoqui (44'), Stach (69'), Jae-sung (86')
Feb 13, 2021 2.30pm
B. Leverkusen
2-2
Mainz
Alario (14'), Schick (84')
Tah (3'), Wendell (13'), Tapsoba (67'), Schick (68'), Fosu-Mensah (82')
Glatzel (89'), Stoger (90+2')
Stoger (90+4')
Oct 17, 2020 2.30pm
Mainz
0-1
B. Leverkusen

Latza (75'), Fernandes (85'), Ji (86')
Alario (30')
Bender (57')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern108203372626
2RB Leipzig106311551021
3Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1062226161020
4Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen104512116517
5Freiburg105231311217
6Union BerlinUnion Berlin1044298116
7Borussia DortmundDortmund105141818016
8Werder Bremen104331721-415
9Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach104241514114
10Mainz 05Mainz103431514113
11Stuttgart103431919013
12Wolfsburg103341918112
13Augsburg103341320-712
14Heidenheim103161315-210
15Hoffenheim102351319-69
16St Pauli10226712-58
17Holstein Kiel101271225-135
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum100281030-202
> Bundesliga Full Table


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