Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Oct 26, 2023 at 8pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
5 - 1
Qarabag

Wirtz (4'), Grimaldo (29', 54'), Okoh Boniface (35'), Tapsoba (57')
Wirtz (15'), Andrich (43')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Bayramov (16' pen.)
Andrade (19'), Romao (45+1'), Cafarquliyev (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Wolfsburg 1-2 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, October 21 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Qarabag FK

All competitions

Last Game: Hacken 0-1 Qarabag
Thursday, October 5 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Qarabag FK

If Alonso makes changes en masse as he may be tempted to, this could be a tighter match than many expect, with Qarabag always defensively disciplined under Gurbanov's management. They will be more confident than usual in European competitions, too, having won both of their opening games, but Leverkusen should still possess enough quality to make it three victories from three in Group H. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 52.99%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 24.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 1-2 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Qarabag FK
52.99% ( 0)	22.47% ( -0)	24.55% ( -0)

Both teams to score 59.71% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.93% (

-0)

40.07% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.57% (

-0)

62.44% (

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.82% (

15.19% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.2% (

43.81% (

-0)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.4% (

-0)

29.6% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.36% (

-0)

65.64% (

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 52.99%

Qarabag FK 24.55%

Draw 22.47%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Qarabag FK
2-1 @ 9.72% 1-0 @ 8.47% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.99% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.11% 3-0 @ 5.02% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.72% 4-1 @ 2.88% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.36% 4-2 @ 1.75% 5-1 @ 1.09% Other @ 3.89% Total : 52.99%	1-1 @ 10.31% 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.5% 3-3 @ 1.51% Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.47%	1-2 @ 6.28% 0-1 @ 5.47% 0-2 @ 3.33% 1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.4% 0-3 @ 1.35% ( -0) Other @ 3.17% Total : 24.55%