Europa League

Europa League | Group Stage

Nov 3, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
3 - 1
Ludogorets

Pellegrini (56' pen., 65' pen.), Zaniolo (85')
Volpato (49'), Zaniolo (87'), Vina (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Rick (42')
Cicinho (15'), Thiago (62'), Nedyalkov (64'), Piotrowski (64'), Rick (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Roma and Ludogorets Razgrad, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Hellas Verona 1-3 Roma
Monday, October 31 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ludogorets Razgrad

All competitions

Last Game: Ludogorets 0-1 Betis
Thursday, October 27 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Roma 2-1 Ludogorets Razgrad

While Ludogorets pose a significant threat back in Bulgaria - as evidenced in Roma's defeat there earlier this term - they do not tend to travel well; making them susceptible to a last-day defeat. Their hosts have enough guile in their Conference League-winning squad - and experience on the bench - to get the job done, but it could be a close-run thing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 12.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.19%) and 2-1 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.05%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 0-1 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.

Result
Roma	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
65.25% ( -0.29)	22.15% ( -0.01)	12.59% ( 0.29)

Both teams to score 39.07% (

0.75)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.61% (

0.57)

56.39% (

-0.57)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.59% (

0.45)

77.41% (

-0.46)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.28% (

0.1)

16.71% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.39% (

0.18)

46.61% (

-0.19)

Ludogorets Razgrad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.92% (

0.84)

53.08% (

-0.84)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.29% (

0.52)

86.7% (

-0.53)

Score Analysis

Roma 65.24%

Ludogorets Razgrad 12.59%

Draw 22.15%

Roma	Draw	Ludogorets Razgrad
1-0 @ 15.87% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 14.19% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 5.36% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 3.79% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.4% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.7% ( 0.07) 5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 65.24%	1-1 @ 10.05% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.2) 2-2 @ 2.85% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.38% Total : 22.15%	0-1 @ 5.62% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.01% Total : 12.59%