Serie A | Gameweek 11
Oct 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Roma0 - 1Napoli
We said: Roma 1-2 Napoli
The last two matches in this southern derby have finished level, and that streak would reach three for the first time in 27 years if two contrasting sides cannot be separated at the Olimpico. However, Napoli's slicker passing and more clinical touch in the box could prove the factors which tip the balance in their favour. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 42.77%. A win for Roma had a probability of 31.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Napoli in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Napoli.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Napoli |
31.09% ( 0.19) | 26.13% ( -0.08) | 42.77% ( -0.1) |
| Both teams to score 52.53% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
