MX23RW : Thursday, November 21 17:30:37| >> :600:396542:396542:
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Europa League
Union Berlin logo
Europa League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 9, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Union Berlin
3 - 3
Union SG

Juranovic (42'), Knoche (69'), Michel (89')
Knoche (75'), Giesselmann (85')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Okoh Boniface (28', 72'), Vertessen (58')
Vertessen (20'), Lynen (53'), Burgess (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Union Berlin and Union SG, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Union Berlin 0-0 FC Koln
Saturday, March 4 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Union SG

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Union SG 2-1 Eupen
Sunday, March 5 at 6.15pm in Belgian Pro League

We said: Union Berlin 1-0 Union SG

 Both meetings in the group stage ended 1-0 to the away team, but we can envisage a reverse scoreline on Thursday, with Union Berlin likely to be able to keep their opponents at arms' length. The two managers deploy very similar formations with an emphasis on remaining compact out of possession, so it may not be a match for the purists to savour. However, the home fans will be roaring their team onto unprecedented success, with Union SG potentially having to settle for keeping the tie alive heading into the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Union SG had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Union SG win was 0-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.

Result
Union BerlinDrawUnion SG
47.11% (-0.931 -0.93) 24.99% (0.265 0.27) 27.9% (0.668 0.67)
Both teams to score 54.33% (-0.348 -0.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.41% (-0.692 -0.69)48.59% (0.694 0.69)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.29% (-0.632 -0.63)70.71% (0.636 0.64)
Union Berlin Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.34% (-0.67400000000001 -0.67)20.66% (0.676 0.68)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.75% (-1.076 -1.08)53.24% (1.077 1.08)
Union SG Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.48% (0.145 0.14)31.52% (-0.143 -0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.09% (0.165 0.16)67.91% (-0.164 -0.16)
Score Analysis
    Union Berlin 47.1%
    Union SG 27.9%
    Draw 24.98%
Union BerlinDrawUnion SG
1-0 @ 10.26% (0.08 0.08)
2-1 @ 9.35% (-0.084999999999999 -0.08)
2-0 @ 8.1% (-0.106 -0.11)
3-1 @ 4.91% (-0.149 -0.15)
3-0 @ 4.26% (-0.146 -0.15)
3-2 @ 2.84% (-0.074 -0.07)
4-1 @ 1.94% (-0.101 -0.1)
4-0 @ 1.68% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.12% (-0.054 -0.05)
Other @ 2.66%
Total : 47.1%
1-1 @ 11.85% (0.14 0.14)
0-0 @ 6.51% (0.184 0.18)
2-2 @ 5.4% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.09% (-0.024 -0.02)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 24.98%
0-1 @ 7.52% (0.241 0.24)
1-2 @ 6.85% (0.106 0.11)
0-2 @ 4.34% (0.156 0.16)
1-3 @ 2.64% (0.052 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.67% (0.066 0.07)
Other @ 2.81%
Total : 27.9%

How you voted: Union Berlin vs Union SG

Union Berlin
84.2%
Draw
12.2%
Union SG
3.6%
196
Head to Head
Nov 3, 2022 8pm
Group D
Union SG
0-1
Union Berlin
Michel (6')
Becker (9')
Sep 8, 2022 5.45pm
Group D
Union Berlin
0-1
Union SG

Trimmel (51')
Lynen (39')
rhs 2.0
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