Europa League

Europa League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 2nd Leg

Feb 23, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Union Berlin
3 - 1
Ajax

(Union Berlin win 3-1 on aggregate)

Knoche (20' pen.), Juranovic (44'), Doekhi (50')
Becker (20'), Doekhi (28')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Kudus (47')
Bassey (17'), Klaassen (20'), Berghuis (90+2'), Kudus (90+5'), Tadic (90+6'), Alvarez (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Union Berlin and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Union Berlin

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Union Berlin 0-0 Schalke
Sunday, February 19 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Ajax 4-0 Sparta
Sunday, February 19 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Union Berlin 2-1 Ajax (Union Berlin to win 2-1 on aggregate)

With Ajax scoring goals for fun on the domestic front, they will believe that it can be transferred over to continental action. However, Union Berlin are stronger than any team in the Eredivisie, and we feel that will show as they edge their way through to the last 16. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.36%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 23.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (8.13%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.

Result
Union Berlin	Draw	Ajax
23.54% ( 0.06)	22.1% ( -0.02)	54.36% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 59.79% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.58% (

0.17)

39.42% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.24% (

0.18)

61.76% (

-0.18)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.93% (

0.15)

30.07% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.8% (

0.17)

66.2% (

-0.17)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.5% (

0.05)

14.5% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.49% (

0.09)

42.51% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

Union Berlin 23.54%

Ajax 54.36%

Draw 22.09%

Union Berlin	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 3.15% 3-1 @ 2.44% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 3.02% Total : 23.54%	1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.36% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.09%	1-2 @ 9.77% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 8.13% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 6.29% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 5.23% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 3.04% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 2.53% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.82% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.17% ( 0) 0-5 @ 0.98% Other @ 3.22% Total : 54.36%