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Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
Azerbaijan national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 16, 2023 at 5pm UK
Baki Olimpiya Stadionu
Sweden national football team

Azerbaijan
3 - 0
Sweden

Mahmudov (3', 89'), Dadasov (6')
Seydayev (29'), Mahammadaliyev (72'), Krivotsyuk (90+2')
Mustafazada (57')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Kulusevski (46'), Cajuste (52'), Andersson (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Azerbaijan and Sweden, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Azerbaijan

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Azerbaijan 0-1 Austria
Monday, October 16 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Belgium71317
2Austria7816
3Sweden637
4Azerbaijan6-84
5Estonia6-161

Sweden

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Belgium 1-1 Sweden
Monday, October 16 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Belgium71317
2Austria7816
3Sweden637
4Azerbaijan6-84
5Estonia6-161

We said: Azerbaijan 0-2 Sweden

 Without a win or even a goal from their three previous showdowns with Sweden, Azerbaijan's scoreless and victory-less streak versus the Scandinavians ought to continue on Thursday, even if Andersson's men understandably find it difficult to focus on the football. The Blue and Yellows gave Belgium a good run for their money without Isak last month, and we expect Andersson's final away match in charge to end in a comfortable success. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 48.28%. A win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 26.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Azerbaijan win was 1-0 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.

Result
AzerbaijanDrawSweden
26.08% (-1.046 -1.05) 25.64% (-0.396 -0.4) 48.28% (1.439 1.44)
Both teams to score 50.88% (0.363 0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.57% (0.878 0.88)52.43% (-0.881 -0.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.89% (0.749 0.75)74.1% (-0.75200000000001 -0.75)
Azerbaijan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.01% (-0.384 -0.38)34.99% (0.381 0.38)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.26% (-0.404 -0.4)71.73% (0.40100000000001 0.4)
Sweden Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.27% (1.013 1.01)21.72% (-1.017 -1.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.1% (1.526 1.53)54.89% (-1.529 -1.53)
Score Analysis
    Azerbaijan 26.08%
    Sweden 48.28%
    Draw 25.63%
AzerbaijanDrawSweden
1-0 @ 7.98% (-0.369 -0.37)
2-1 @ 6.4% (-0.162 -0.16)
2-0 @ 4.19% (-0.239 -0.24)
3-1 @ 2.24% (-0.081 -0.08)
3-2 @ 1.71% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-0 @ 1.47% (-0.1 -0.1)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 26.08%
1-1 @ 12.18% (-0.18 -0.18)
0-0 @ 7.6% (-0.268 -0.27)
2-2 @ 4.89% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 25.63%
0-1 @ 11.6% (-0.050000000000001 -0.05)
1-2 @ 9.3% (0.144 0.14)
0-2 @ 8.86% (0.227 0.23)
1-3 @ 4.73% (0.213 0.21)
0-3 @ 4.51% (0.247 0.25)
2-3 @ 2.49% (0.087 0.09)
1-4 @ 1.81% (0.133 0.13)
0-4 @ 1.72% (0.143 0.14)
2-4 @ 0.95% (0.061 0.06)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 48.28%

How you voted: Azerbaijan vs Sweden

Azerbaijan
12.6%
Draw
21.1%
Sweden
66.3%
95
Head to Head
Mar 27, 2023 7.45pm
Group Stage
Sweden
5-0
Azerbaijan
Forsberg (38'), Mustafazada (65' og.), Gyokeres (79'), Karlsson (88'), Elanga (89')
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