Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Jun 17, 2023 at 5pm UK

Dalga Arena

Azerbaijan
1 - 1
Estonia

Krivotsyuk (62')
Bayramov (72')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sappinen (27')
Mets (42'), Kait (90+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Azerbaijan and Estonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Azerbaijan

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Sweden 5-0 Azerbaijan
Monday, March 27 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	2	4	6
2	Belgium	1	3	3
3	Sweden	2	2	3
4	Estonia	1	-1	0
5	Azerbaijan	2	-8	0

Estonia

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Austria 2-1 Estonia
Monday, March 27 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Austria	2	4	6
2	Belgium	1	3	3
3	Sweden	2	2	3
4	Estonia	1	-1	0
5	Azerbaijan	2	-8	0

We said: Azerbaijan 0-1 Estonia

Given that Estonia pushed Austria all the way in their opening qualifier, we expect the visitors to claim a narrow victory over Azerbaijan, who have already conceded nine goals across two defeats this campaign. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.

Result
Azerbaijan	Draw	Estonia
41.81% ( 0.62)	27.75% ( -0.21)	30.44% ( -0.41)

Both teams to score 47.42% (

0.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.8% (

0.62)

58.2% (

-0.61)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.15% (

0.48)

78.85% (

-0.48)

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.56% (

0.63)

27.44% (

-0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.07% (

0.81)

62.93% (

-0.8)

Estonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.35% (

0.02)

34.65% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.63% (

0.02)

71.37% (

-0.02)

Score Analysis

Azerbaijan 41.81%

Estonia 30.43%

Draw 27.74%

Azerbaijan	Draw	Estonia
1-0 @ 12.29% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 3.63% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.88% Total : 41.81%	1-1 @ 13.03% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 9.51% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.74%	0-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.12) 1-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.21% Total : 30.43%