With both nations having more important qualifying fixtures on the horizon, it is difficult to envisage either playing this friendly at full intensity, but the hosts clearly have more to prove after a difficult run of results.
Sweden's hopes of qualifying for Euro 2024 appear to be very slim at this stage, whereas Moldova could compete at a major tournament for the first time in their history after winning consecutive matches, but we believe that Andersson's side will return to victorious ways here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 55.63%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Moldova had a probability of 19.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.25%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Moldova win it was 0-1 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.
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0.22) 
