Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Mar 25, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Croatia1 - 1Wales
The Match
Match Report
Wales dramatically salvage a last-gasp 1-1 draw with Croatia in Saturday's Euro 2024 qualifier in Split.
Preview
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Croatia and Wales, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Croatia 2-1 Morocco
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in World Cup
Saturday, December 17 at 3pm in World Cup
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Croatia | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 3 | Belgium | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Canada | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 51.52%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Wales had a probability of 23.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.88%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (7.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Croatia | Draw | Wales |
51.52% ( -0.11) | 25.45% ( 0) | 23.03% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 48.43% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.85% ( 0.09) | 54.14% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.44% ( 0.07) | 75.56% ( -0.07) |
| Croatia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.96% ( -0.01) | 21.04% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.17% ( -0.01) | 53.83% ( 0.01) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.34% ( 0.15) | 38.66% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.6% ( 0.14) | 75.4% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
Croatia 51.51%
Wales 23.03%
Draw 25.44%
| Croatia | Draw | Wales |
| 1-0 @ 12.67% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.88% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.14% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.88% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.9% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.9% ( 0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 51.51% | 1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.81% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 7.73% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.73% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.67% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.51% Total : 23.03% |
How you voted: Croatia vs Wales
Croatia
86.3%Draw
7.2%Wales
6.5%153
Form Guide
