Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Serbia
2 - 0
Lithuania

Tadic (16'), Vlahovic (53')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Slivka (90+3')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Serbia and Lithuania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Serbia

All competitions

Last Game: USA 1-2 Serbia
Thursday, January 26 at 3am in International Friendlies

Current Group G Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Brazil	3	2	6
2	Switzerland	3	1	6
3	Cameroon	3	0	4
4	Serbia	3	-3	1

Lithuania

Last Game: Estonia 2-0 Lithuania
Saturday, November 19 at 2pm in Baltic Cup

Serbia should be able to kick off their qualification campaign with a comfortable victory, and given the disparity between the two sides, it is more likely to be a question of how many they can win by. With the likes of Mitrovic and Vlahovic to choose from in attack, it would not be a surprise to see the Eagles rack up a victory by a sizeable margin. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 86.47%. A draw had a probability of 9.8% and a win for Lithuania had a probability of 3.74%.

The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.67%) and 4-0 (10.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.63%), while for a Lithuania win it was 0-1 (1.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Serbia in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Serbia.

Result
Serbia	Draw	Lithuania
86.47% ( -0.09)	9.79% ( 0.04)	3.74% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 36.93% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.98% (

0.11)

33.01% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.26% (

0.13)

54.74% (

-0.13)

Serbia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.8% (

5.2% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

79.43% (

0.01)

20.57% (

-0.01)

Lithuania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

38.95% (

0.34)

61.05% (

-0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

8.82% (

0.17)

91.17% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Serbia 86.46%

Lithuania 3.74%

Draw 9.79%

Serbia	Draw	Lithuania
2-0 @ 13.87% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 13.67% ( -0.07) 4-0 @ 10.1% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 9.38% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 5.98% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 2.95% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.03) 6-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 7-0 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.38% Total : 86.46%	1-1 @ 4.63% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.3% Total : 9.79%	0-1 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.03% Total : 3.74%