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FA Cup
Crewe Alexandra
FA Cup | First Round
Nov 5, 2023 at 2.45pm UK
Alexandra Stadium
Derby logo

Crewe
2 - 2
Derby

Baker-Richardson (41'), Nevitt (54')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Mendez-Laing (89'), Hourihane (90+3')
Coverage of the FA Cup First Round clash between Crewe Alexandra and Derby County.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crewe Alexandra

All competitions
Last Game: Harrogate 0-1 Crewe
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in League Two

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Derby 4-0 Northampton
Tuesday, October 31 at 7.45pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 56.98%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 19.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.24%) and 1-2 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.

Result
Crewe AlexandraDrawDerby County
19.96% (0.0039999999999978 0) 23.06% (0.0010000000000012 0) 56.98% (-0.0039999999999978 -0)
Both teams to score 51.45% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.95% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)48.05% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.79% (0.004999999999999 0)70.21% (-0.0050000000000097 -0.01)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.72% (0.009999999999998 0.01)38.28% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.96% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)75.04% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.37% (0.00099999999999056 0)16.63% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.54% (0.00099999999999767 0)46.46%
Score Analysis
    Crewe Alexandra 19.96%
    Derby County 56.98%
    Draw 23.06%
Crewe AlexandraDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 6.11%
2-1 @ 5.27% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-0 @ 2.94% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-1 @ 1.69% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 1.51%
3-0 @ 0.94%
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 19.96%
1-1 @ 10.96%
0-0 @ 6.37% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-2 @ 4.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 0.9% (0.001 0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 23.06%
0-1 @ 11.42%
0-2 @ 10.24%
1-2 @ 9.84% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-3 @ 6.13% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 5.88%
2-3 @ 2.82% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 2.75%
1-4 @ 2.64%
2-4 @ 1.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-5 @ 0.99%
1-5 @ 0.95%
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 56.98%

How you voted: Crewe vs Derby

Crewe Alexandra
10.0%
Draw
10.0%
Derby County
80.0%
10
Head to Head
Jan 14, 2006 3pm
Derby
5-1
Crewe
Johnson (21'), Smith (53', 63'), Idiakez (71'), Peschisolido (11')
Vaughan (79')
Turnbull (71')
Sep 11, 2005 3pm
Crewe
1-1
Derby
Rivers (30')
Foster (36')
Bisgaard (49')
Davies (17'), Johnson (67')
Davies (62')
Apr 5, 2005 3pm
Crewe
1-2
Derby
Vaughan (90')
Lunt (81')
Smith (74'), Rasiak (16')
Bolder (65')
Aug 28, 2004 3pm
Derby
2-4
Crewe
Idiakez (46'), Tudgay (16')
Idiakez (60')
Jones (5', 83'), Vaughan (12'), Ashton (74')
rhs 2.0
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