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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Derby County |
31.88% (![]() | 27.38% (![]() | 40.74% (![]() |
Both teams to score 49% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.55% (![]() | 56.44% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.55% (![]() | 77.45% (![]() |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.31% (![]() | 32.68% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.76% (![]() | 69.23% (![]() |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.79% (![]() | 27.2% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.38% (![]() | 62.61% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.94% (![]() 2-1 @ 7.24% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 5.56% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 2.7% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 2.07% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 1.76% ( ![]() Other @ 2.61% Total : 31.88% | 1-1 @ 12.94% 0-0 @ 8.89% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4.71% ( ![]() Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.38% | 0-1 @ 11.57% (![]() 1-2 @ 8.43% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 7.53% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 3.66% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 3.27% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.04% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 1.19% ( ![]() 0-4 @ 1.06% ( ![]() Other @ 1.98% Total : 40.73% |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | ![]() | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | ![]() | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |