Fluminense will continue their pursuit of a Copa Libertadores group stage spot when they host fellow continental hopefuls Atletico Goianiense on Saturday night.
The pair are separated by two points in mid-table, in what is shaping up to be an extremely tight end to the Brazilian Serie A campaign.
Match preview
© Reuters
Close to a decade since the last time Fluminense last won the Brazilian championship, their hopes of a first title since 2012 were quashed early on in the campaign, due to their patchy and inconsistent form.
It took the Tricolor Flu Fluzao 18 matches of the season to register their first back-to-back wins of the campaign, with the side from Rio de Janeiro having failed to threaten the division's top spots.
A resurgence of late had seen Marco Aurelio's side embark on a six-match unbeaten run, yet a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Fortaleza in midweek brought about the Fluminense coach's first defeat of his most recent reign.
Marco was reinstated as Fluminense boss for the third time in mid-August, following the sacking of Roger Machado after a run of six matches without a victory, and the former Tricolor Flu Fluzao player has impressed so far in his latest stint.
There is a good chance the 49-year-old will see his side extend their strong form this weekend, with Fluminense having enjoyed their best performances at home this season, and the visit of Goianiense could prove crucial in their hunt for a top-six spot.
Fluminense's fifth-placed finish last season secured a Libertadores group stage spot, following a seven-year absence from South America's premier competition.
However, their dream of a maiden Libertadores triumph was quashed by Barcelona at the quarter-finals stage, with the Colombian side progressing on away goals after a 3-3 aggregate draw.
© Reuters
Their opponents this weekend also enjoyed continental football this season, with Goianiense competing in South America's secondary competition, the Copa Sudamericana.
Unlike Fluminense, the Dragons were knocked out in the group stage, failing to progress to the knockout stages after finishing behind Paraguayan side Club Libertad.
A return to South American football seems likely for Goianiense next season, as they are currently occupying one of the six Sudamericana spaces, and they could even make a late dash for Libertadores qualification.
In a healthier position than they were at the start of the season, Goianiense have lost only two of their previous 11 Serie A matches, setting up what could end up being a strong finish to the campaign.
It also would not be massively against the odds if Goianiense were to go on and beat Fluminense, given the Dragons' impressive head-to-head record against their opponents, as they have only lost once in the last six meetings between the pair.
Furthermore, Goianiense have won the previous three matches against the Tricolor Flu Fluzao, with their last defeat coming in the first leg of their 2020 Copa do Brasil fourth-round tie – a fixture Marco's men progressed from on aggregate.
For Fluminense's last league victory over Goianiense, you have to go back to August 2017, when the Rio club triumphed 3-1 at the Maracana – a result they will be keen to replicate when the two meet at Brazilian football's eternal home this weekend.
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- D
Team News
© Reuters
It has been a relatively stable campaign for Goianiense and they remain hopeful of a return to continental football next season, with near enough a full squad to pick from this weekend.
Marlon Freitas is the only Goianiense player absent from their squad through injury, however, after missing the last nine matches with a foot problem the 26-year-old midfielder could be close to a return.
Igor Carius will return to the Goianiense squad having missed their last match with a yellow card suspension and Eduardo Barroca could choose to reinstate the 28-year-old on the left-hand side of defence.
A push to make the Sudamericana may depend on the form of Ze Roberto, who has five goals for the campaign, and the Goianiense forward will lead the line against Fluminense.
Unlike their opponents, Fluminense are in the midst of a minor injury crisis, with a number of players absent for Tricolor Flu Fluzao.
Gabriel Teixeira, Manoel and Ganso are unlikely to feature at all in October for Marco's side and the trio will be a big miss for the hosts against Goianiense.
Unlike his teammates, Hudson will not feature in Fluminense's push for continental football, as the 33-year-old is yet to play this season following a cruciate ligament injury picked up last year.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Marcos; Calegari, Nino, Claro, Danilo; Andre, Nonato, Yago, Henrique, Fred, Paulista
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Fernando; Dudu, Wanderson, Eder, Natanael; Barbosa Teixeira, Maranhao; Luis, Paulo, Pereira Martins; Ze Roberto
We say: Fluminense 1-1 Atletico Goianiense
A stumbling campaign could be made a little bit sweeter if Fluminense are able to sneak into the Libertadores spots before the end of the season.
A win against Goianiense will take them within touching distance of the top six, whilst a defeat could spell the end of their hopes, meaning a draw seems the likely scenario in this one.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 45.46%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.05%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.91%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 0-1 (9.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
