We said: Manchester United 3-1 Crystal Palace
Man United have been impressive in their opening two friendlies of the summer, and the Red Devils will fancy their chances of beating an understrength Palace on Tuesday. Palace's second-half XI is likely to be a team of youngsters, and we are expecting Ten Hag's side to be too strong here.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 56.99%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Crystal Palace had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Crystal Palace win it was 0-1 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Manchester United in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester United.
0.25) 
-0.42) 
