We said: Mexico 2-1 Ecuador
In what should be an intriguing encounter between two sides looking to build confidence for the World Cup, we predict a tight contest that could go either way.
Ultimately, we see Mexico boasting the slightly stronger squad all round and back them to bounce back from the recent defeat to Uruguay with a narrow win.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 57.62%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.26%) and 2-1 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.33%), while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.