We said: Ecuador 2-1 Cape Verde
With their AFCON qualifying game against Eswatini just around the corner, we expect Cape Verde to name a weakened and reshuffled side in this one. Ecuador, who are 25 places higher in the latest FIFA world rankings, boast a superior and more-experienced squad and we predict they will come out victorious.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 52.69%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Mali had a probability of 21.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Mali win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.
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