International Friendly

Nov 20, 2022 at 8pm UK

Beausejour Stadium

St Lucia
1 - 0
San Marino

Frederick (68' pen.)
(34'), Frederick (69'), (90+2')
Frederick (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

(35'), (39'), Zafferani (71'), Palazzi (81'), Capicchioni (83'), (90+6'), Ceccaroli (90+10')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's International Friendlies clash between Saint Lucia and San Marino, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Saint Lucia

Last Game: St Lucia 1-1 San Marino
Thursday, November 17 at 10pm in International Friendlies

San Marino

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: St Lucia 1-1 San Marino
Thursday, November 17 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Current League D2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Estonia	0	0	0
2	Malta	0	0	0
3	San Marino	0	0	0

We said: Saint Lucia 1-1 San Marino

Given the similarity in quality between the two sides, we would not be surprised to see a repeat of Friday's result at the weekend. San Marino do have the ability to hurt their opponents but will find it tough ending an 18-year wait for a win, and we see them returning home with another draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 85.89%. A draw had a probability of 9.2% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 4.93%.

The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.82%) and 4-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.04%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-2 (1.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Lucia would win this match.

Result
Saint Lucia	Draw	San Marino
85.89% ( 31.97)	9.17% ( -16.09)	4.93% ( -15.89)

Both teams to score 52.34% (

6.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

78.8% (

34.37)

21.2% (

-34.37)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

60.21% (

36.95)

39.79% (

-36.95)

Saint Lucia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.68% (

17.31)

3.31% (

-17.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

85.39% (

38.57)

14.6% (

-38.57)

San Marino Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.14% (

-4.17)

45.86% (

4.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.39% (

-3.45)

81.61% (

3.45)

Score Analysis

Saint Lucia 85.89%

San Marino 4.93%

Draw 9.17%

Saint Lucia	Draw	San Marino
3-0 @ 10.01% ( 4.37) 2-0 @ 8.82% ( -1.89) 4-0 @ 8.53% ( 6.31) 3-1 @ 7.81% ( 2.88) 2-1 @ 6.88% ( -2.5) 4-1 @ 6.65% ( 4.7) 5-0 @ 5.81% ( 5.11) 1-0 @ 5.18% ( -8.39) 5-1 @ 4.53% ( 3.92) 6-0 @ 3.3% ( 3.12) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( 0.89) 4-2 @ 2.59% ( 1.74) 6-1 @ 2.57% ( 2.41) 5-2 @ 1.77% ( 1.5) 7-0 @ 1.61% ( 1.57) 7-1 @ 1.25% ( 1.22) 6-2 @ 1% ( 0.93) Other @ 4.52% Total : 85.89%	1-1 @ 4.04% ( -7.83) 2-2 @ 2.68% ( -1.42) 0-0 @ 1.52% ( -7.08) Other @ 0.94% Total : 9.17%	1-2 @ 1.57% ( -3.62) 0-1 @ 1.19% ( -6.34) Other @ 2.17% Total : 4.93%