FC Koln take on VfL Bochum at the RheinEnergieStadion on Saturday in what is, as things stand, a mid-table clash in this embryonic Bundesliga season.
The two sides will be expected to slide towards the bottom of the table over the course of the year, but a win for either in this encounter would complete a very solid start to the season.
Match preview
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Koln retained their top division status by the skin of their teeth last year, via a relegation playoff win over Holstein Kiel, and decided a change was required in the dugout.
Steffen Baumgart was brought in from SC Paderborn during the summer and enjoyed a perfect start to his tenure, with his side impressively triumphing 3-2 over Bayern Munich in a pre-season friendly.
They were unfortunate to see that scoreline reversed last weekend when they played Bayern away at the Allianz Arena in their second game of the season.
Baumgart's side held firm through to half time, but that Polish number nine predictably opened the scoring early in the second half and Serge Gnabry then made it two. The underdogs fought back, though, with two goals in three minutes - from Anthony Modeste and Mark Uth - pulling them back level.
Gnabry ultimately found a winner but Baumgart will be pleased with the spirit his men displayed and, combined with an impressive 3-1 win at home to Hertha Berlin on the opening day, there are certainly promising signs for the Billy Goats.
Bochum's promotion from the second tier last season has seen them return to the Bundesliga for the first time since 2009-10.
They were somewhat thrown in at the deep end with a trip to Champions League side Wolfsburg, but a 1-0 loss - especially after an early red card for Robert Tesche - was far from an embarrassment.
Thomas Reis and his team built on that performance, with an impressive 2-0 win over Mainz 05 in the second round of fixtures, featuring a superb solo goal by Gerrit Holtmann and a header from Sebastian Polter.
Whilst Mainz are also expected to struggle this season, if the newly promoted side can pick up three points in games like these, they will put themselves in a good position to survive.
The game against Koln will provide another such opportunity for at least a point - whilst Die Unabsteigbaren lost more recently in two friendlies, they triumphed over Koln in their previous league meeting in the second division.
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Team News
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The hosts have a pretty clean bill of health, with their only certain absentee defender Jannes Horn with a hip injury.
Marvin Schwabe and Timo Hubers are also doubts, with hand and knee injuries respectively, but there are no serious issues for Baumgart to contend with, so he will likely stick with a familiar 4-4-2 setup.
Bochum, on the other hand, do have a fair few issues.
Tesche remains suspended after his straight red in the opening game and there are a long list of short- and long-term injuries.
Takuma Asano is out with a muscular problem and will likely be joined on the sidelines by Christopher Antwi-Adjei, Maxim Leitsch, Eduard Lowen and Patrick Osterhage.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
T. Horn; Ehizibue, Mere, Czichos, Hector; Skhiri, Thielmann, Ljubicic, Kainz; Modeste, Uth
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Gamboa, Lampropoulos, Bella-Kotchap, Soares; Pantovic, Losilla, Rexhbecaj; Zoller, Polter, Holtmann
We say: FC Koln 2-1 VfL Bochum
Both Modeste and Uth are likely to prove a handful for the Bochum defenders and the visitors' away form leaves a lot to be desired, so Koln look the more likely side to edge the match.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 38.93%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 1-2 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for FC Koln in this match.
