Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 62.24%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 16.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
Result | ||
Barcelona | Draw | Valencia |
62.24% ( -0.09) | 20.97% ( 0.08) | 16.79% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 52.33% ( -0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.07% ( -0.33) | 43.93% ( 0.34) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.68% ( -0.33) | 66.32% ( 0.33) |
Barcelona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.45% ( -0.13) | 13.54% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.38% ( -0.27) | 40.62% ( 0.27) |
Valencia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.53% ( -0.18) | 39.47% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.84% ( -0.17) | 76.16% ( 0.17) |
Score Analysis |
Barcelona | Draw | Valencia |
1-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.1) 2-0 @ 10.68% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.12% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.31% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 62.23% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 5.35% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.97% | 0-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 4.62% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.03% Total : 16.79% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 12 | 28 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 27 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 26 |
4 | Villarreal | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 24 |
5 | Osasuna | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 20 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 20 |
8 | Real Sociedad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Mallorca | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 18 |
10 | GironaGirona | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 18 |
11 | Celta Vigo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 17 |
12 | Rayo Vallecano | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 16 |
13 | Sevilla | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 15 |
14 | Leganes | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 14 |
15 | AlavesAlaves | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 12 |
17 | Getafe | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
18 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 9 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |