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Serie A | Gameweek 1

Sep 30, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 4
Atalanta

Caicedo (57')
Marusic (12'), Alberto (26'), Leiva (40'), Cataldi (70'), Acerbi (72'), Caicedo (75'), Immobile (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Gosens (10'), Hateboer (32'), Papu (41', 61')
Djimsiti (17'), Freuler (26')

Preview: Lazio vs. Atalanta BC - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter | 28 September 2020

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A fixture between Lazio and Atalanta BC, including team news and predicted lineups.

Lazio and Atalanta BC square off in Serie A on Wednesday evening with both clubs looking to build on their winning start to the season.

While Lazio posted a 2-0 victory away at Cagliari, Atalanta recorded a thrilling 4-2 triumph over Torino.

Match preview

Lazio manager Simone Inzaghi pictured in July 2020 © Reuters

Having both challenged for the Serie A title during 2019-20, Lazio and Atalanta are aware that a fast start to this campaign will keep the pressure on Juventus and Inter Milan.

Neither of last season's top two have looked particularly convincing during their opening fixtures, providing a window of opportunity for the teams who finished directly below them in the standings.

Starting their campaign later than some of their rivals, Lazio and Atalanta both got their schedules underway with victories on Saturday.

The latter found themselves involved in a chaotic encounter at Torino, going behind early before establishing a 3-2 advantage at half time.

An early goal after the break from Marten de Roon ultimately saw off the challenge of their hosts, but there was every suggestion that Gian Piero Gasperini's side may require some time to get up to speed.

In the hours after the contest at Stadio Olimpico Grande, Lazio were more convincing in seeing off Cagliari courtesy of goals from Manuel Lazzari and Ciro Immobile.

While Simone Inzaghi has kept incomings down to a minimum, the club's best piece of business was extending the contract of the free-scoring Immobile, who now faces competition from Vedat Muriqi.

Inzaghi and Gasperini will head into this encounter arguably content to settle for a draw should the opportunity arise, but collecting maximum points may act as the catalyst for a sustained bid at the league title.

Lazio Serie A form: W

Atalanta BC Serie A form: W

Team News

Atalanta coach Gian Piero Gasperini pictured on August 25, 2019 © Reuters

Jose Luis Palomino is in line to take the place of Mattia Caldara after being introduced as a half-time substitute at the weekend.

Mario Pasalic and Ruslan Malinovskiy are also pushing for a chance in the Atalanta starting lineup, potentially at the expense of Luis Muriel.

Goalkeeper Pierluigi Gollini and new arrival Aleksei Miranchuk will miss the game due to injury.

Barring any late fitness issues, Inzaghi could opt to name the same side which began Lazio's fixture against Cagliari.

That would leave Felipe Caicedo having to remain patient for an opportunity in the final third, while Muriqi is currently sidelined through injury.

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Patric, Acerbi, Radu; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Lucas, Luis Alberto, Marusic; Immobile, Correa

Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Sportiello; Toloi, Palomino, Sutalo; Hateboer, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Pasalic, Gomez; Zapata

SM words green background

We say: Lazio 1-2 Atalanta BC

This has all the makings of an entertaining contest, one which may be decided by a late goal. Although Atalanta have had less recovery time than their hosts, we are backing the visitors to prevail in a match which could prove pivotal come the end of the season.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or draw in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 32.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Lazio win was 2-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.